The Sultan of Stats Week 12 Analysis
Add - Antonio Bryant (WR-TB) He is the #1 WR for Tampa Bay and goes up against one of the worst pass defenses in Detroit in week 12. Week 12 Yahtzee!
Add- Derrick Ward (RB-TB) - Brandon Jacobs is nursing an injury and may be ruled out for week 12. That opens the door for Ward to have a huge game as the starting running back against Arizona.
Add - Carnell Cadillac Williams (RB-TB) - Earnest Graham looks to be out for the rest of the season so Cadillac Williams' return will be accelerated and he could be the starting RB going forward in TB.
Add - Peyton Hillis (RB-DEN) - Hillis was the starting running back in week 11 against Atlanta and had 44 rushing yards, 26 receiving yards, and 2 TDs.
Add - Donny Avery (WR-STL) - Still only owned in 52% of yahoo leagues, Avery is still getting a lot of receiving yards. He had 92 receiving yards in week 11. The TDs will come soon.
Week 11 Analysis
Speculative Add -
Tatum Bell (RB-DEN) - Bell just signed with his former team and should get
the start in week 11 for the Broncos. Pick him up and see what he can do!
Add -
Peyton Hillis (RB-DEN) - Hillis is named starting running
back against Atlanta.
Add - BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB-NE) - Had 105 rushing yards and 1 TD in week 10. Looks like the RB going forward in New England.
Trade Away - Steve Slayton (RB-HOU) - Texans coach Gary Kubiak said Steve Slaton was given fewer carries in Week 10 because the running back was "worn down." This is typical for rookie running backs, so don't expect much out of Slayton during your fantasy playoff weeks.
Start - Larry Johnson (RB-KC) - Herm Edwards confirmed that Larry Johnson will return and play for the Chiefs in Week 11. LJ has a decent matchup against New Orleans who rank 18th in run defense, giving up 109.5 yards per game
Week 10 Analysis
Add - Jamal Charles - RB - Kansas City Chiefs - With Larry Johnson either suspended or battling legal issues for the rest of the season and Kolby Smith done for the season with a knee injury, it is Jamal Charles' job by default. He had 106 rushing yards against the #13 rush defense in Tampa Bay that averages 99.3 yards per game.
Add - Tim Hightower - RB - Arizona Cardinals - There is a new fantasy sheriff in town, and his name is Hightower. Edgerrin James will take a back seat the rest of the season to Hightower.
Add - Ray Rice - RB - Baltimore Ravens - Ray Rice had 154 rushing yards in week 9. Willis McGahee remains injured with an aggravated foot.
Add - Cedric Benson - RB - Cincinnati Bengals - Benson had 24 carries in week 9 with 104 rushing yards and 1 TD.
Add - Antonio Bryant - WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - In week 9, he had 8 passes for 115 receiving yards. He has taken over as the #1 WR this season in Tampa Bay.
Add - Greg Camarillo - WR - Miami Dolphins - Although Ted Ginn Jr. has been the #1 receiver in Miami, he has been inconsistent. Camarillo had 11 receptions and 111 receiving yards in week 9.
| Position | Stud | Dud | Sleeper |
| QB | Kurt Warner - Arizona vs. San Francisco | Peyton Manning at Pittsburgh | Shaun Hill - San Francisco at Arizona |
| RB | LaDainian Tomlinson - SD vs. KC | Ryan Grant - GB at Minnesota | Ryan Torain - Denver at Cleveland |
| WR | Laveranues Coles - NY Jets vs. St. Louis | Hines Ward - Pittsburgh vs. Indianapolis | Greg Camarillo - Miami vs. Seattle |
| TE | Antonio Gates - SD vs. KC | Kellen Winslow - Cleveland vs. Denver | Anthony Fasano - Miami vs. Seattle |
| DEF | Jacksonville at Detroit | Minnesota vs. Green Bay | NY Jets vs. St. Louis |
| K | Phil Dawson - Cleveland vs. Denver | Rob Bironas - Tennessee at Chicago | Connor Barth - Kansas City at SD |
Gazing into the fantasy football playoff crystal ball
November 6, 2008
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Football Empire
www.fantasyfootballempire.comWith the fantasy football playoffs within range, and the fantasy football trade deadline looming, now is the time that you want to gaze into your crystal ball to determine your player’s matchups. Traditionally, fantasy football league playoffs are held in weeks 14-16. If your league holds their playoffs during week 17, there is always the chance that you will have players that will be purposely benched by their NFL coaches if they have nothing to play for in regards to playoff seating.
My statistical analysis begins with analyzing the all defenses and ranking them against the run and against the pass. We have a large enough sample size after week 9 to project that these defenses will rank roughly remain the same by the end of week 13 as the rank today by the end of week 9. I then color coded rush defenses based off of their average rushing and passing yards yielded per game:
Rush Defense
Red: 50-100 yards per game
Yellow: 100-135 yards per game
Green: 135-200 yards per game
Pass Defense
Red: 150-200 yards per game
Yellow: 200-225 yards per game
Green: 225-275 yards per game
The defenses highlighted in red are toughest to run and pass against, the defenses highlighted in yellow are neutral, and the defenses highlighted in green are the easiest to run and pass against. Here are the results that include the fantasy football playoff opponents (weeks 14-16):
Rush Defense
|
Rush Defense - Through Week 9 |
|||||
|
Rank |
Team |
Rush YPG |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
|
1 |
Baltimore |
64.3 |
Washington |
Pittsburgh |
at Dallas |
|
2 |
Minnesota |
69.6 |
at Detroit |
at Arizona |
Atlanta |
|
3 |
Pittsburgh |
70.1 |
Dallas |
at Baltimore |
at Tennessee |
|
4 |
NY Jets |
76.0 |
at San Francisco |
Buffalo |
at Seattle |
|
5 |
Washington |
80.7 |
at Baltimore |
at Cincinnati |
Philadelphia |
|
6 |
Chicago |
81.8 |
Jacksonville |
New Orleans |
Green Bay |
|
7 |
NY Giants |
85.4 |
Philadelphia |
at Dallas |
Carolina |
|
8 |
Philadelphia |
89.0 |
at NY Giants |
at Cleveland |
at Washington |
|
9 |
Miami |
89.6 |
at Buffalo |
San Francisco |
at Kansas City |
|
10 |
Tennessee |
91.6 |
Cleveland |
at Houston |
Pittsburgh |
|
11 |
Arizona |
92.0 |
St. Louis |
Minnesota |
at New England |
|
12 |
Buffalo |
98.9 |
Miami |
at NY Jets |
at Denver |
|
13 |
Tampa Bay |
99.3 |
at Carolina |
at Atlanta |
San Diego |
|
14 |
Carolina |
99.9 |
Tampa Bay |
Denver |
at NY Giants |
|
15 |
New England |
105.0 |
at Seattle |
at Oakland |
Arizona |
|
16 |
San Diego |
106.5 |
Oakland |
at Kansas City |
at Tampa Bay |
|
17 |
Dallas |
107.1 |
at Pittsburgh |
NY Giants |
Baltimore |
|
18 |
New Orleans |
109.1 |
Atlanta |
at Chicago |
at Detroit |
|
19 |
San Francisco |
112.0 |
NY Jets |
at Miami |
at St. Louis |
|
20 |
Jacksonville |
114.4 |
at Chicago |
Green Bay |
Indianapolis |
|
21 |
Seattle |
115.5 |
New England |
at St. Louis |
NY Jets |
|
22 |
Atlanta |
120.9 |
at New Orleans |
Tampa Bay |
at Minnesota |
|
23 |
Houston |
126.8 |
at Green Bay |
Tennessee |
at Oakland |
|
24 |
Cincinnati |
138.1 |
at Indianapolis |
Washington |
at Cleveland |
|
25 |
Indianapolis |
143.6 |
Cincinnati |
Detroit |
at Jacksonville |
|
26 |
Denver |
144.6 |
Kansas City |
at Carolina |
Buffalo |
|
27 |
Green Bay |
146.4 |
Houston |
at Jacksonville |
at Chicago |
|
28 |
Cleveland |
148.0 |
at Tennessee |
Philadelphia |
Cincinnati |
|
29 |
St. Louis |
155.5 |
at Arizona |
Seattle |
San Francisco |
|
30 |
Oakland |
157.6 |
at San Diego |
New England |
Houston |
|
31 |
Detroit |
161.8 |
Minnesota |
at Indianapolis |
New Orleans |
|
32 |
Kansas City |
182.4 |
at Denver |
San Diego |
at Miami |
Pass Defense
|
Pass Defense - Through Week 9 |
|||||
|
Rank |
Team |
Pass YPG |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
|
1 |
Pittsburgh |
164.0 |
Dallas |
at Baltimore |
at Tennessee |
|
2 |
NY Giants |
175.0 |
Philadelphia |
at Dallas |
Carolina |
|
3 |
Indianapolis |
181.0 |
Cincinnati |
Detroit |
at Jacksonville |
|
4 |
Baltimore |
182.1 |
Washington |
Pittsburgh |
at Dallas |
|
5 |
Green Bay |
183.9 |
Houston |
at Jacksonville |
at Chicago |
|
6 |
Tampa Bay |
190.1 |
at Carolina |
at Atlanta |
San Diego |
|
7 |
Washington |
191.4 |
at Baltimore |
at Cincinnati |
Philadelphia |
|
8 |
Philadelphia |
191.5 |
at NY Giants |
at Cleveland |
at Washington |
|
9 |
Cincinnati |
193.7 |
at Indianapolis |
Washington |
at Cleveland |
|
10 |
Dallas |
193.8 |
at Pittsburgh |
NY Giants |
Baltimore |
|
11 |
Carolina |
194.5 |
Tampa Bay |
Denver |
at NY Giants |
|
12 |
Tennessee |
198.1 |
Cleveland |
at Houston |
Pittsburgh |
|
13 |
Cleveland |
200.1 |
at Tennessee |
Philadelphia |
Cincinnati |
|
14 |
Houston |
202.1 |
at Green Bay |
Tennessee |
at Oakland |
|
15 |
Buffalo |
202.8 |
Miami |
at NY Jets |
at Denver |
|
16 |
Atlanta |
205.0 |
at New Orleans |
Tampa Bay |
at Minnesota |
|
17 |
New England |
212.6 |
at Seattle |
at Oakland |
Arizona |
|
18 |
Oakland |
216.3 |
at San Diego |
New England |
Houston |
|
19 |
Arizona |
216.3 |
St. Louis |
Minnesota |
at New England |
|
20 |
San Francisco |
217.6 |
NY Jets |
at Miami |
at St. Louis |
|
21 |
Jacksonville |
220.9 |
at Chicago |
Green Bay |
Indianapolis |
|
22 |
Kansas City |
224.6 |
at Denver |
San Diego |
at Miami |
|
23 |
Minnesota |
232.9 |
at Detroit |
at Arizona |
Atlanta |
|
24 |
NY Jets |
236.4 |
at San Francisco |
Buffalo |
at Seattle |
|
25 |
New Orleans |
237.3 |
Atlanta |
at Chicago |
at Detroit |
|
26 |
Miami |
242.3 |
at Buffalo |
San Francisco |
at Kansas City |
|
27 |
Denver |
243.3 |
Kansas City |
at Carolina |
Buffalo |
|
28 |
St. Louis |
246.3 |
at Arizona |
Seattle |
San Francisco |
|
29 |
Detroit |
247.1 |
Minnesota |
at Indianapolis |
New Orleans |
|
30 |
Chicago |
247.8 |
Jacksonville |
New Orleans |
Green Bay |
|
31 |
Seattle |
258.0 |
New England |
at St. Louis |
NY Jets |
|
32 |
San Diego |
265.1 |
Oakland |
at Kansas City |
at Tampa Bay |
My next analysis involved taking this information and reviewing each of the positional players to determine what kind of matchups will be presented during weeks 14-16. I then used the following scoring system to rank their weekly playoff matchup:
An unfavorable matchup yielded -1 point
A neutral matchup yielded 0 points
A favorable matchup yielded +1 point
Here are the results by positional players:
Running Backs
|
RB Rank |
Player |
Team |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
Net Score |
Playoff Rank |
|
1 |
Clinton Portis |
Washington |
Baltimore |
at Cincinnati |
Philadelphia |
-1 |
14 |
|
2 |
Marion Barber |
Dallas |
at Pittsburgh |
NY Giants |
Baltimore |
-3 |
27 |
|
3 |
Frank Gore |
San Francisco |
NY Jets |
at Miami |
at St. Louis |
-1 |
23 |
|
4 |
Chris Johnson |
Tennessee |
Cleveland |
at Houston |
Pittsburgh |
0 |
6 |
|
5 |
Matt Forte |
Chicago |
Jacksonville |
New Orleans |
Green Bay |
1 |
2 |
|
6 |
Adrian Peterson |
Minnesota |
at Detroit |
at Arizona |
Atlanta |
0 |
7 |
|
7 |
Michael Turner |
Atlanta |
at New Orleans |
Tampa Bay |
at Minnesota |
-2 |
24 |
|
8 |
Brandon Jacobs |
NY Giants |
Philadelphia |
at Dallas |
Carolina |
-2 |
25 |
|
9 |
Ronnie Brown |
Miami |
at Buffalo |
San Francisco |
at Kansas City |
0 |
8 |
|
10 |
Reggie Bush |
New Orleans |
Atlanta |
at Chicago |
at Detroit |
0 |
9 |
|
11 |
Brian Westbrook |
Philadelphia |
at NY Giants |
at Cleveland |
at Washington |
-1 |
15 |
|
12 |
Steve Slaton |
Houston |
at Green Bay |
Tennessee |
at Oakland |
1 |
3 |
|
13 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
San Diego |
Oakland |
at Kansas City |
at Tampa Bay |
1 |
4 |
|
14 |
Thomas Jones |
NY Jets |
at San Francisco |
Buffalo |
at Seattle |
-1 |
16 |
|
15 |
Marshawn Lynch |
Buffalo |
Miami |
at NY Jets |
at Denver |
-1 |
17 |
|
16 |
LenDale White |
Tennessee |
Cleveland |
at Houston |
Pittsburgh |
0 |
10 |
|
17 |
Steven Jackson |
St. Louis |
at Arizona |
Seattle |
San Francisco |
-1 |
18 |
|
18 |
Earnest Graham |
Tampa Bay |
at Carolina |
at Atlanta |
San Diego |
-1 |
19 |
|
19 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
Jacksonville |
at Chicago |
Green Bay |
Indianapolis |
1 |
5 |
|
20 |
DeAngelo Williams |
Carolina |
Tampa Bay |
Denver |
at NY Giants |
-1 |
20 |
|
21 |
Jamal Lewis |
Cleveland |
at Tennessee |
Philadelphia |
Cincinnati |
-1 |
21 |
|
22 |
Tim Hightower |
Arizona |
St. Louis |
Minnesota |
at New England |
0 |
11 |
|
23 |
Le'Ron McClain |
Baltimore |
Washington |
Pittsburgh |
at Dallas |
-2 |
26 |
|
24 |
Kevin Smith |
Detroit |
Minnesota |
at Indianapolis |
New Orleans |
0 |
12 |
|
25 |
Julius Jones |
Seattle |
New England |
at St. Louis |
NY Jets |
0 |
13 |
|
26 |
Ryan Torain |
Denver |
Kansas City |
at Carolina |
Buffalo |
-1 |
22 |
|
27 |
Joseph Addai |
Indianapolis |
Cincinnati |
Detroit |
at Jacksonville |
2 |
1 |
Quarterbacks
|
QB Rank |
Player |
Team |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
Net Score |
Playoff Rank |
|
1 |
Philip Rivers |
San Diego |
Oakland |
at Kansas City |
at Tampa Bay |
-1 |
14 |
|
2 |
Drew Brees |
New Orleans |
Atlanta |
at Chicago |
at Detroit |
2 |
4 |
|
3 |
Kurt Warner |
Arizona |
St. Louis |
Minnesota |