Fantasy Football Articles
Gazing into the fantasy football playoff crystal ball
November 6, 2008
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Football Empire
www.fantasyfootballempire.comWith the fantasy football playoffs within range, and the fantasy football trade deadline looming, now is the time that you want to gaze into your crystal ball to determine your player’s matchups. Traditionally, fantasy football league playoffs are held in weeks 14-16. If your league holds their playoffs during week 17, there is always the chance that you will have players that will be purposely benched by their NFL coaches if they have nothing to play for in regards to playoff seating.
My statistical analysis begins with analyzing the all defenses and ranking them against the run and against the pass. We have a large enough sample size after week 9 to project that these defenses will rank roughly remain the same by the end of week 13 as the rank today by the end of week 9. I then color coded rush defenses based off of their average rushing and passing yards yielded per game:
Rush Defense
Red: 50-100 yards per game
Yellow: 100-135 yards per game
Green: 135-200 yards per game
Pass Defense
Red: 150-200 yards per game
Yellow: 200-225 yards per game
Green: 225-275 yards per game
The defenses highlighted in red are toughest to run and pass against, the defenses highlighted in yellow are neutral, and the defenses highlighted in green are the easiest to run and pass against. Here are the results that include the fantasy football playoff opponents (weeks 14-16):
Rush Defense
|
Rush Defense - Through Week 9 |
|||||
|
Rank |
Team |
Rush YPG |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
|
1 |
Baltimore |
64.3 |
Washington |
Pittsburgh |
at Dallas |
|
2 |
Minnesota |
69.6 |
at Detroit |
at Arizona |
Atlanta |
|
3 |
Pittsburgh |
70.1 |
Dallas |
at Baltimore |
at Tennessee |
|
4 |
NY Jets |
76.0 |
at San Francisco |
Buffalo |
at Seattle |
|
5 |
Washington |
80.7 |
at Baltimore |
at Cincinnati |
Philadelphia |
|
6 |
Chicago |
81.8 |
Jacksonville |
New Orleans |
Green Bay |
|
7 |
NY Giants |
85.4 |
Philadelphia |
at Dallas |
Carolina |
|
8 |
Philadelphia |
89.0 |
at NY Giants |
at Cleveland |
at Washington |
|
9 |
Miami |
89.6 |
at Buffalo |
San Francisco |
at Kansas City |
|
10 |
Tennessee |
91.6 |
Cleveland |
at Houston |
Pittsburgh |
|
11 |
Arizona |
92.0 |
St. Louis |
Minnesota |
at New England |
|
12 |
Buffalo |
98.9 |
Miami |
at NY Jets |
at Denver |
|
13 |
Tampa Bay |
99.3 |
at Carolina |
at Atlanta |
San Diego |
|
14 |
Carolina |
99.9 |
Tampa Bay |
Denver |
at NY Giants |
|
15 |
New England |
105.0 |
at Seattle |
at Oakland |
Arizona |
|
16 |
San Diego |
106.5 |
Oakland |
at Kansas City |
at Tampa Bay |
|
17 |
Dallas |
107.1 |
at Pittsburgh |
NY Giants |
Baltimore |
|
18 |
New Orleans |
109.1 |
Atlanta |
at Chicago |
at Detroit |
|
19 |
San Francisco |
112.0 |
NY Jets |
at Miami |
at St. Louis |
|
20 |
Jacksonville |
114.4 |
at Chicago |
Green Bay |
Indianapolis |
|
21 |
Seattle |
115.5 |
New England |
at St. Louis |
NY Jets |
|
22 |
Atlanta |
120.9 |
at New Orleans |
Tampa Bay |
at Minnesota |
|
23 |
Houston |
126.8 |
at Green Bay |
Tennessee |
at Oakland |
|
24 |
Cincinnati |
138.1 |
at Indianapolis |
Washington |
at Cleveland |
|
25 |
Indianapolis |
143.6 |
Cincinnati |
Detroit |
at Jacksonville |
|
26 |
Denver |
144.6 |
Kansas City |
at Carolina |
Buffalo |
|
27 |
Green Bay |
146.4 |
Houston |
at Jacksonville |
at Chicago |
|
28 |
Cleveland |
148.0 |
at Tennessee |
Philadelphia |
Cincinnati |
|
29 |
St. Louis |
155.5 |
at Arizona |
Seattle |
San Francisco |
|
30 |
Oakland |
157.6 |
at San Diego |
New England |
Houston |
|
31 |
Detroit |
161.8 |
Minnesota |
at Indianapolis |
New Orleans |
|
32 |
Kansas City |
182.4 |
at Denver |
San Diego |
at Miami |
Pass Defense
|
Pass Defense - Through Week 9 |
|||||
|
Rank |
Team |
Pass YPG |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
|
1 |
Pittsburgh |
164.0 |
Dallas |
at Baltimore |
at Tennessee |
|
2 |
NY Giants |
175.0 |
Philadelphia |
at Dallas |
Carolina |
|
3 |
Indianapolis |
181.0 |
Cincinnati |
Detroit |
at Jacksonville |
|
4 |
Baltimore |
182.1 |
Washington |
Pittsburgh |
at Dallas |
|
5 |
Green Bay |
183.9 |
Houston |
at Jacksonville |
at Chicago |
|
6 |
Tampa Bay |
190.1 |
at Carolina |
at Atlanta |
San Diego |
|
7 |
Washington |
191.4 |
at Baltimore |
at Cincinnati |
Philadelphia |
|
8 |
Philadelphia |
191.5 |
at NY Giants |
at Cleveland |
at Washington |
|
9 |
Cincinnati |
193.7 |
at Indianapolis |
Washington |
at Cleveland |
|
10 |
Dallas |
193.8 |
at Pittsburgh |
NY Giants |
Baltimore |
|
11 |
Carolina |
194.5 |
Tampa Bay |
Denver |
at NY Giants |
|
12 |
Tennessee |
198.1 |
Cleveland |
at Houston |
Pittsburgh |
|
13 |
Cleveland |
200.1 |
at Tennessee |
Philadelphia |
Cincinnati |
|
14 |
Houston |
202.1 |
at Green Bay |
Tennessee |
at Oakland |
|
15 |
Buffalo |
202.8 |
Miami |
at NY Jets |
at Denver |
|
16 |
Atlanta |
205.0 |
at New Orleans |
Tampa Bay |
at Minnesota |
|
17 |
New England |
212.6 |
at Seattle |
at Oakland |
Arizona |
|
18 |
Oakland |
216.3 |
at San Diego |
New England |
Houston |
|
19 |
Arizona |
216.3 |
St. Louis |
Minnesota |
at New England |
|
20 |
San Francisco |
217.6 |
NY Jets |
at Miami |
at St. Louis |
|
21 |
Jacksonville |
220.9 |
at Chicago |
Green Bay |
Indianapolis |
|
22 |
Kansas City |
224.6 |
at Denver |
San Diego |
at Miami |
|
23 |
Minnesota |
232.9 |
at Detroit |
at Arizona |
Atlanta |
|
24 |
NY Jets |
236.4 |
at San Francisco |
Buffalo |
at Seattle |
|
25 |
New Orleans |
237.3 |
Atlanta |
at Chicago |
at Detroit |
|
26 |
Miami |
242.3 |
at Buffalo |
San Francisco |
at Kansas City |
|
27 |
Denver |
243.3 |
Kansas City |
at Carolina |
Buffalo |
|
28 |
St. Louis |
246.3 |
at Arizona |
Seattle |
San Francisco |
|
29 |
Detroit |
247.1 |
Minnesota |
at Indianapolis |
New Orleans |
|
30 |
Chicago |
247.8 |
Jacksonville |
New Orleans |
Green Bay |
|
31 |
Seattle |
258.0 |
New England |
at St. Louis |
NY Jets |
|
32 |
San Diego |
265.1 |
Oakland |
at Kansas City |
at Tampa Bay |
My next analysis involved taking this information and reviewing each of the positional players to determine what kind of matchups will be presented during weeks 14-16. I then used the following scoring system to rank their weekly playoff matchup:
An unfavorable matchup yielded -1 point
A neutral matchup yielded 0 points
A favorable matchup yielded +1 point
Here are the results by positional players:
Running Backs
|
RB Rank |
Player |
Team |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
Net Score |
Playoff Rank |
|
1 |
Clinton Portis |
Washington |
Baltimore |
at Cincinnati |
Philadelphia |
-1 |
14 |
|
2 |
Marion Barber |
Dallas |
at Pittsburgh |
NY Giants |
Baltimore |
-3 |
27 |
|
3 |
Frank Gore |
San Francisco |
NY Jets |
at Miami |
at St. Louis |
-1 |
23 |
|
4 |
Chris Johnson |
Tennessee |
Cleveland |
at Houston |
Pittsburgh |
0 |
6 |
|
5 |
Matt Forte |
Chicago |
Jacksonville |
New Orleans |
Green Bay |
1 |
2 |
|
6 |
Adrian Peterson |
Minnesota |
at Detroit |
at Arizona |
Atlanta |
0 |
7 |
|
7 |
Michael Turner |
Atlanta |
at New Orleans |
Tampa Bay |
at Minnesota |
-2 |
24 |
|
8 |
Brandon Jacobs |
NY Giants |
Philadelphia |
at Dallas |
Carolina |
-2 |
25 |
|
9 |
Ronnie Brown |
Miami |
at Buffalo |
San Francisco |
at Kansas City |
0 |
8 |
|
10 |
Reggie Bush |
New Orleans |
Atlanta |
at Chicago |
at Detroit |
0 |
9 |
|
11 |
Brian Westbrook |
Philadelphia |
at NY Giants |
at Cleveland |
at Washington |
-1 |
15 |
|
12 |
Steve Slaton |
Houston |
at Green Bay |
Tennessee |
at Oakland |
1 |
3 |
|
13 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
San Diego |
Oakland |
at Kansas City |
at Tampa Bay |
1 |
4 |
|
14 |
Thomas Jones |
NY Jets |
at San Francisco |
Buffalo |
at Seattle |
-1 |
16 |
|
15 |
Marshawn Lynch |
Buffalo |
Miami |
at NY Jets |
at Denver |
-1 |
17 |
|
16 |
LenDale White |
Tennessee |
Cleveland |
at Houston |
Pittsburgh |
0 |
10 |
|
17 |
Steven Jackson |
St. Louis |
at Arizona |
Seattle |
San Francisco |
-1 |
18 |
|
18 |
Earnest Graham |
Tampa Bay |
at Carolina |
at Atlanta |
San Diego |
-1 |
19 |
|
19 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
Jacksonville |
at Chicago |
Green Bay |
Indianapolis |
1 |
5 |
|
20 |
DeAngelo Williams |
Carolina |
Tampa Bay |
Denver |
at NY Giants |
-1 |
20 |
|
21 |
Jamal Lewis |
Cleveland |
at Tennessee |
Philadelphia |
Cincinnati |
-1 |
21 |
|
22 |
Tim Hightower |
Arizona |
St. Louis |
Minnesota |
at New England |
0 |
11 |
|
23 |
Le'Ron McClain |
Baltimore |
Washington |
Pittsburgh |
at Dallas |
-2 |
26 |
|
24 |
Kevin Smith |
Detroit |
Minnesota |
at Indianapolis |
New Orleans |
0 |
12 |
|
25 |
Julius Jones |
Seattle |
New England |
at St. Louis |
NY Jets |
0 |
13 |
|
26 |
Ryan Torain |
Denver |
Kansas City |
at Carolina |
Buffalo |
-1 |
22 |
|
27 |
Joseph Addai |
Indianapolis |
Cincinnati |
Detroit |
at Jacksonville |
2 |
1 |
Quarterbacks
|
QB Rank |
Player |
Team |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
Net Score |
Playoff Rank |
|
1 |
Philip Rivers |
San Diego |
Oakland |
at Kansas City |
at Tampa Bay |
-1 |
14 |
|
2 |
Drew Brees |
New Orleans |
Atlanta |
at Chicago |
at Detroit |
2 |
4 |
|
3 |
Kurt Warner |
Arizona |
St. Louis |
Minnesota |
at New England |
2 |
5 |
|
4 |
Aaron Rodgers |
Green Bay |
Houston |
at Jacksonville |
at Chicago |
1 |
6 |
|
5 |
Jay Cutler |
Denver |
Kansas City |
at Carolina |
Buffalo |
-1 |
15 |
|
6 |
Donovan McNabb |
Philadelphia |
at NY Giants |
at Cleveland |
at Washington |
-2 |
18 |
|
7 |
Peyton Manning |
Indianapolis |
Cincinnati |
Detroit |
at Jacksonville |
0 |
11 |
|
8 |
Brett Favre |
NY Jets |
at San Francisco |
Buffalo |
at Seattle |
1 |
7 |
|
9 |
Eli Manning |
NY Giants |
Philadelphia |
at Dallas |
Carolina |
-3 |
20 |
|
10 |
Matt Schaub |
Houston |
at Green Bay |
Tennessee |
at Oakland |
-2 |
19 |
|
11 |
Tony Romo |
Dallas |
at Pittsburgh |
NY Giants |
Baltimore |
-3 |
21 |
|
12 |
Kyle Orton |
Chicago |
Jacksonville |
New Orleans |
Green Bay |
0 |
12 |
|
13 |
Jason Campbell |
Washington |
at Baltimore |
at Cincinnati |
Philadelphia |
-3 |
22 |